Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.006344 0.007102 0.007927 0.008894 0.009997 0.011221 0.012685
2025-02-16 0.005160 0.006202 0.007432 0.009000 0.010958 0.013339 0.016477
2025-02-23 0.004408 0.005547 0.006963 0.008872 0.011405 0.014684 0.019314
2025-03-02 0.003973 0.005188 0.006767 0.008996 0.012107 0.016358 0.022724
2025-03-09 0.003575 0.004815 0.006485 0.008937 0.012508 0.017622 0.025685
2025-03-16 0.003158 0.004363 0.006036 0.008573 0.012406 0.018116 0.027534
2025-03-23 0.002905 0.004111 0.005833 0.008528 0.012746 0.019277 0.030531
2025-03-30 0.002803 0.004064 0.005916 0.008908 0.013761 0.021581 0.035690
2025-04-06 0.002552 0.003770 0.005601 0.008632 0.013692 0.022113 0.037883
2025-04-13 0.002343 0.003523 0.005333 0.008402 0.013665 0.022695 0.040221
2025-04-20 0.002206 0.003376 0.005208 0.008389 0.013997 0.023922 0.043912
2025-04-27 0.002142 0.003339 0.005254 0.008664 0.014853 0.026178 0.049916
2025-05-04 0.002006 0.003178 0.005093 0.008581 0.015085 0.027358 0.054062
2025-05-11 0.001909 0.003078 0.005025 0.008659 0.015626 0.029212 0.059974
2025-05-18 0.001789 0.002927 0.004859 0.008538 0.015770 0.030283 0.064337
2025-05-25 0.001719 0.002856 0.004824 0.008657 0.016392 0.032410 0.071482
2025-06-01 0.001628 0.002743 0.004704 0.008600 0.016650 0.033795 0.077113
2025-06-08 0.001503 0.002561 0.004447 0.008251 0.016265 0.033724 0.079124
2025-06-15 0.001431 0.002469 0.004348 0.008209 0.016524 0.035128 0.085172
2025-06-22 0.001417 0.002481 0.004445 0.008572 0.017704 0.038816 0.098052
2025-06-29 0.001325 0.002345 0.004249 0.008308 0.017453 0.039062 0.101437
2025-07-06 0.001246 0.002227 0.004080 0.008088 0.017280 0.039477 0.105395
2025-07-13 0.001197 0.002161 0.004010 0.008075 0.017590 0.041145 0.113433